About this investigation

Surfaced two material assumptions: (a) Jason Mielke's EXIF-Artist attribution truly reflects BCA authorship vs Word-template default — MODERATE sensitivity, MODERATE confidence (limits kj_002 to MODERATE); (b) PSPTips reward authenticity / PSP affiliation — HIGH sensitivity (reward routing matters operationally), LOW confidence (kj_006 set to LOW). Identity assumption for Williams himself is HIGH-confidence — DOB, physical descriptors, and photos converge across BCA, GINA, Charley Project, and Facebook community group.

Three hypotheses tested on case state: H1 'case is active at state-investigative level with periodic public-attention pulses', H2 'case is functionally cold; 2021–2026 activity is advocacy-only', H3 'recent activity signals a fresh lead or investigator turnover'. H1 leads on weighted-inconsistency — the A1 BCA bulletin authored on state infrastructure by an EXIF-attributed individual is inconsistent with H2 (advocacy-only). H3 is retained as roughly even chance vs H1 but cannot be distinguished from H1 on current evidence.

Failure modes considered: (i) Mielke is a Word-template default name rather than the BCA case officer (kj_002 confidence limited to MODERATE); (ii) PSPTips reward is unrelated to the official case (kj_006 set to LOW); (iii) automated face-recognition false-positives would mislead any follow-on identification phase (encoded in r_02 / b_02); (iv) the 2012 GIMP modification represents an unaccounted custody actor (encoded in evt_006 and b_04). No premortem mode strong enough to invalidate kj_001 or kj_003.

Applied in a constrained mode — target is a missing-person victim, not an adversarial entity. Red entries reframed to case-integrity threats (reward fraud, re-ID drift, family social engineering) rather than attack-surface against the subject. Three red + paired blue + two baseline blue entries produced; threat playbook is appropriately modest for a person-target investigation.